"If I Leave… I Cannot Breathe": Climate Change and Civilian Protection in Iraq
Publisher: Center for Civilians in Conflict
Author(s): Jordan Lesser-Roy
Date: 2022
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Gender, Governance, Land, Livelihoods, Renewable Resources
Countries: Iraq
Climate change is set to cause unpredictable weather patterns, including droughts and flooding, desertification of once arable lands, and increased water shortages. Over the next thirty years, the temperature across Iraq is expected to rise by an unprecedented 2 degrees Celsius on average, exceeding the point that climate scientists believe is critical for stemming the negative effects of climate change. These effects will occur in tandem with low water levels resulting from drought and international resource conflicts, chronic domestic mismanagement of natural resources, and environmental degradation and pollution from myriad conflicts over the past several decades. Iraqi society, which is already in a fragile post-conflict state recovering from the high intensity combat operations against the Islamic State (ISIS) in 2014-2017, stands to suffer from intensified outbreaks of violence, increased protection threats, and inter- and intra-communal tensions as a result of the multiplier effect of climate change.3 While much has been written about the first-order effects of climate change and environmental degradation, this paper examines potential conflict drivers and specific security vulnerabilities for civilians and their communities that may result from the immediate effects of climate change—most notably, changes in livelihoods and migration patterns.