Integrated Assessment of Climate-Related Security Risks for Peace and Security in Blue Nile, Sudan, and Their Gender Dimensions
Publisher: UNEP
Author(s): Hector Morales Munoz, Lukas Rüttinger, and Yosr Khèdr
Date: 2026
Topics: Assessment, Climate Change, Dispute Resolution/Mediation, Economic Recovery, Gender, Governance, Humanitarian Assistance, Land, Livelihoods, Peace Agreements
Countries: Sudan
The Blue Nile State in Sudan is grappling with a severe and escalating crisis, marked by an intensifying conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023. This conflict has displaced over 11 million people, with hundreds of thousands seeking refuge in Blue Nile State. The situation has exacerbated existing intercommunal tensions and complicated the management of natural resources, which are already under strain from climate change impacts. Climate-induced hydrological changes are creating a dual crisis of increased surface runoff during rainy seasons and reduced baseflow during dry periods, simultaneously heightening risks of flooding and water scarcity. The region's vulnerability is compounded by the population's high dependency on agriculture (80%) and weak or overwhelmed natural resource governance structures. Furthermore, environmental degradation driven by reduced vegetation and agricultural expansion is accelerating soil erosion and sedimentation. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has emerged as a focal point for transboundary security risks, necessitating coordinated management between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt to prevent water conflict, particularly during drought periods. This integrated assessment addresses these intersecting issues of gender, climate change, and security through a gender and intersectional lens, identifying both current and projected risks whilst proposing transformative actions aimed at building resilience. To build security and resilience in this complex landscape, three key interventions are essential. First, local and gender-responsive, community-based natural resource management should be implemented to manage scarcity and reduce tensions through inclusive governance. Second, improved transboundary data sharing regarding water flows and dam operations can foster cooperation amongst riparian states. Third, adaptation strategies must be strengthened through enhanced early warning systems for farmers and support for sustainable land use practices to manage increasing climate variability effectively.